Arguments for (Why it's becoming more likely):
* Technological Advancements: Global shutter technology has been improving rapidly in recent years. Manufacturing costs are coming down, and sensor performance (dynamic range, low-light sensitivity) is catching up to rolling shutter sensors.
* Addressing Rolling Shutter Issues: Rolling shutter distortion is a well-known problem, especially in video recording. It causes warping, skewing, and wobbling of images when the camera or subject is moving quickly. Global shutter eliminates these issues entirely.
* Demand from Professionals: High-end video production, action sports photography, and virtual production environments all benefit significantly from global shutter. Professionals in these fields are increasingly demanding it.
* Rise of Computational Photography: Global shutter can simplify and improve the results of many computational photography techniques (like motion blur removal or 3D reconstruction).
* Market Differentiation: Camera manufacturers are always looking for ways to stand out. Offering a global shutter could be a major selling point, especially in certain market segments.
* Smaller pixel sizes: It is becoming increasingly difficult to increase the read-out speed of rolling shutters as pixel sizes decrease.
* Use in smartphones: Recently, some smartphone manufacturers are starting to use global shutter technology in their phones.
Arguments Against (Why it might not be the next big thing everywhere):
* Cost: Global shutter sensors are still generally more expensive to manufacture than rolling shutter sensors.
* Performance Trade-offs: Although closing the gap, global shutter sensors can still have some performance limitations compared to rolling shutter sensors in terms of dynamic range and low-light sensitivity, although this is improving rapidly.
* Established Infrastructure: The camera industry has a vast established ecosystem built around rolling shutter technology. Switching to global shutter requires rethinking certain aspects of image processing pipelines and workflows.
* Good Enough for Many Users: For casual photographers and videographers, the rolling shutter effect might not be a significant problem or concern. Manufacturers might prioritize other features (like resolution, autofocus, or lens selection) that appeal to a broader audience.
* Computational Fixes: Advances in software and processing can mitigate some rolling shutter artifacts. While not a perfect solution, it can be "good enough" for some applications.
* Marketing: Global shutter is not the easiest feature to market. Most consumers won't understand it. Manufacturers might choose to focus on features that are easier to advertise.
Conclusion:
It is highly likely that we will see more cameras with global shutters in the near future, especially in professional and high-end models. However, it's unlikely to completely replace rolling shutter sensors across all camera types and price points immediately.
To make a more informed prediction, consider these points:
* Which camera segment are you interested in? (Smartphones, mirrorless, DSLR, cinema cameras, etc.) Global shutter is more likely to appear in high-end models first.
* Which manufacturer? Some manufacturers are more likely to adopt new technologies earlier than others.
In summary: Global shutter is on the rise and is being implemented more and more.